1.0 PROPOSER INFORMATION

(Activity ID No: 99)

1.1 Title of Activity
Ozone layer and UV radiation in a changing climate evaluated during IPY

1.2 Short Form Title of Proposed Activity
ORACLE-O3

1.3 Activity Leaders Details
Peter von der Gathen
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
Germany

Niels Larsen
Danish Meteorological Institute
Denmark

1.4 Lead International Organisation(s) (if applicable)
No

1.6 Expression of Intent ID #'s brought together in this proposed activity
542, 566, 28, 222, 312, 322, 371, 425, 438, 720, 808, 833, 871, 919, 923

1.7 Location of Field Activities
Bipolar

1.8 Which IPY themes are addressed
1. Current state of the environment
2. Change in the polar regions
3. Polar-global linkages/tele-connections
4. Exploring new frontiers
5. The polar regions as vantage points
6. The human dimension in polar regions

1.9 What is the main IPY target addressed by this activity
1. Natural or social science

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2.0 SUMMARY OF THE ACTIVITY

The depletion of the polar ozone layer is one of the strongest anthropogenic signals in the earth system. The IPY will approximately take place during the period of peak concentrations of man-made ozone depleting substances in the region of the ozone layer. It is also the time when potential effects from climate change, e.g. changes in temperature, water vapour abundances, and/or circulation, might begin to manifest in the stratosphere and influence ozone recovery. In April 2005, nearly eighteen years after the signing of the Montreal Protocol (MP), ozone loss is as severe as ever over the Arctic, and the timing and extent of ozone recovery is uncertain. Depletion of stratospheric ozone in polar regions has greatly enhanced harmful UV radiation in the affected areas at times of the year when ecosystems are vulnerable. The state of the polar stratosphere, and its future development will be, therefore, a major source of concern, both for circumpolar communities and people living at lower latitudes in the International Polar Year (IPY) and for decades thereafter. The project will be divided into seven main activities: 1) ozone loss (detection and impact on UV radiation, 2) PSC (polar stratospheric clouds) and cirrus, 3) atmospheric chemistry, 4) UV radiation, 5) ozone and climate change and feedback, 6) data management, and 7) education, outreach and communication.
The project implies precisely quantification of polar ozone losses in both hemispheres achieved with concerted international campaigns during which hundreds of ozonesondes will be launched in real-time coordination from station networks in the Arctic and Antarctic. Satellite coverage of ozone and ozone depleting substances will be unprecedented during the IPY, and data from satellites such as ENVISAT, Aura, ACE, Odin, POAM III and SAGE III will be used in a novel approach that combines these measurements with groundbased station data.
Understanding ozone depletion requires an understanding of PSCs which are known to initiate ozone depletion through heterogeneous reactions and enhance ozone depletion through removal of nitric acid (denitrification) by cloud sedimentation. Chemical, microphysical, and optical properties of polar cloud particles and gas phase species will be obtained in-situ and remotely from stratospheric balloons and several aircraft, including the high altitude research aircraft Geophysica during a major Arctic field campaign. Complementary particle information will be gained by lidar observations from several Arctic and Antarctic NDSC (Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change) research stations, including the development of PSC detection capabilities with the satellite borne CALIPSO lidar.
During the project ground-based observations will be performed at many Arctic and Antarctic NDSC-stations by means of remote sensing instruments operating in the infrared, UV/Vis and microwave spectral regions to measure the seasonal and long-term variability of ozone, water vapour, and numerous key ozone-related trace gases in the stratosphere, in addition to tropospheric pollutants, greenhouse gases, and biomass burning. Radiosonde, lidar and satellite will provide measurements of wind and temperatures in the troposphere, stratosphere and mesosphere. The project also comprehends monitoring of UV-, visible, and infrared radiation and ground/sea/ice albedo in various high latitude stations in the northern and southern hemisphere together with modelling studies of ozone and UV in these regions, including an epidemiological study of personal UV exposure.
Integration of field data and process studies within a modelling framework will enable predictions the future evolution of the ozone layer as well as the potential feedback on the future polar climate. The modelling efforts will focus on assimilating the observations to yield a comprehensive understanding that can both reproduce the observed circulation and chemical evolution and predict the Arctic and Antarctic middle atmosphere response to changes in the circulation and atmospheric chemistry. Atmospheric effects of manifestations of solar activity as the short-term changes of the cosmic ray intensity, variations of the interplanetary electric field and variations of the solar UV-irradiation will be included. Interactively coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) of the troposphere and the stratosphere will be used to investigate past and to assess future changes of climate and atmospheric chemical composition at higher geographical latitudes of the Earth's atmosphere, particularly of ozone recovery in the stratosphere. Related changes of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation will be determined.
Some of the activities are part of existing long-term observations of several key species in the Arctic. More information can be found in the particular Expressions of Intent.

2.1 What is the evidence of inter-disciplinarity in this activity?
The experimental and modelling research on the ozone layer, UV radiation and the effects of personal UV exposure brings the science fields of physics/meteorology, chemistry, biology/medicine, and mathematics together.

2.2 What will be the significant advances/developments from this activity? What will be the major deliverables? What are the outputs for your peers?
The state of the ozone layer and the UV radiation in both polar regions during a time period when the contents of ozone destroying components in the stratosphere are expected to be near the maximum will be monitored. This takes place with a large suit of instruments which complement each other in space and time resolution (e.g. ground based instruments, ozonesondes, air-borne instruments, satellites). New insights in the formation of Polar Stratospheric Clouds will be found. Deficits in our current understanding of ozone loss processes will be investigated. The results and further investigations will be used to improve the prediction of future ozone and UV level including ozone recovery. A comprehensive public information system will inform the public about the state of the polar ozone layer and the seasonal development of the Antarctic ozone hole throughout the project. The project will establish foundations for future data products on UV and visible radiation which in turn will facilitate for upgraded operational products including a variety of biologically effective doses. The research shall be of practical use for people living in polar regions. More details can be found in the EoIs. Major deliverables will be a huge amount of data in accessible data bases as well as talks presented during high-rank conferences and workshops and papers published in peer-reviewed journals. One of the workshops is part of this activity.

2.3 Outline the geographical location(s) for the proposed field work (approximate coordinates will be helpful if possible)

2.4 Define the approximate timeframe(s) for proposed field activities?

2.5 What major logistic support/facilities will be required for this project?
Existing field stations
Snow terrain vehicles
Fixed wing geophysical aircraft
Icebreaker
Fixed wing transport aircraft
Helicopters
Observatories

Further details – Satellites High performance computer Large hangars

2.6 How will the required logistics be supplied? Have operators been approached?

2.7 If working in the Arctic regions, has there been contact with local indigenous groups or relevant authorities regarding access?

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3.0 STRUCTURE OF THE ACTIVITY

3.1 Origin of the activity
This is a pulse of activity during 2007-2009 within an existing programme

If part of an existing programme please name the programme – SCOUT-O3 and others

3.2 How will the activity be organised and managed? Describe the proposed management structure and means for coordinating across the cluster
The project will be managed by a management committee with members from each of the EoI's. The project will be divided into seven main activities: 1) ozone loss (detection and impact on UV radiation, 2) PSC and cirrus, 3) atmospheric chemistry, 4) UV radiation, 5) ozone and climate change and feedback, 6) data management, and 7) education, outreach and communication. Activity leaders will be responsible for the scientific leadership of the project. The activity leaders and contact persons for very big experiments (e.g. aircraft) will also be members of the management committee. The project complements the European Commission funded Integrated Project Stratosphere-Climate Links With Emphasis On The UTLS (SCOUT-O3) which mainly focuses on chemical-, cloud-, and transport-processes in the tropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) and the influence on the ozone layer at mid-latitudes, including the pole ward transport of water vapour. The coordinator and several of the management committee members or activity
leaders are or intend to be represented in the Executive Committee of SCOUT-O3 or vise versa. The project will take advantage of the SCOUT-O3 management structure including its science planning, workshops and conferences, data management, and public outreach. Together the two projects will constitute the current most comprehensive scientific effort for investigations of process influencing the ozone layer at a global scale reaching from the tropics over mid-latitudes to the poles.
ORACLE-O3 forms part the sub-cluster 4.1 on Clouds, aerosol and chemical composition. Beyond regular email corresponding it has been agreed that within this sub-cluster there will be meetings of the project leads in order to foster collaboration between the different activities. It is also proposed to have joint workshops and after the main field phase joint publication in journal special sections involving several activities where appropriate.

3.3 Will the activity leave a legacy of infrastructure and if so in what form?
The instruments operated in the frame of the project have the vocation to be continued after the IPY time frame for the survey of the recovery of the ozone layer. This will lead
to permanent high quality measurement programmes in both polar regions as well as an improved operational radiation database, and foundations for widely available radiation data products. Enhanced hangar and other airport facilities at Longyearbyen will be beneficial to future Arctic research, based on aircraft, also beyond the IPY leading to a new long term observing platform with technical capabilities not found at such high latitudes anywhere else. Used CCMs will be part of so called Earth System models, which are currently under development. Model validation will improve quality control of upcoming campaigns.

3.4 Will the activity involve nations other than traditional polar nations? How will this be addressed?
Many involved nations do have no territories in polar regions. Some nations like e.g. Greece don't have even polar stations.

3.5 Will this activity be linked with other IPY core activities? If yes please specify
This activity will be linked with other core activities mainly of the Topic "Clouds, aerosols and atmospheric chemistry", i.e. POLARCAT, SYNSCOPE (to be submitted to the 30 September deadline), AICI, ATMOPOL, OASIS, ArCDiv.

3.6 How will the activity manage its data? Is there a viable plan and which data management organisations/structures will be involved?
Data will be managed according to the overall IPY data policy. Data management, data protocol, and data storage will be made compatible to the SCOUT-O3 data management (including data storage at the NILU database). There is a 15 year long tradition in data management based on many big European and combined European/American stratospheric field experiments. The project will use this experience. Additional groundbased observational data will be stored at the NDSC database and the European UV database (EUVDB), and ozone and UV data will be also submitted to the WMO WOUDC data base.

3.7 Data Policy Agreement
Will this activity sign up to the IPY draft Data Policy (see website)
Yes

3.8 How will the activity contribute to developing the next generation of polar scientists, logisticians, etc.?
Many PhD students and post-doc positions will be associated with the project.
Collaboration with the local university at Svalbard will be considered.

3.9 How will this activity address education, outreach and communication issues outlined in the Framework document?
The project will be presented on the internet partly in interactive form, and news media will be informed by press releases and invited during campaign activities and open-day arrangements.
On institute level the public will be informed during open-day events, too, as well as through lectures in schools. Beyond these direct contacts a comprehensive public information system will inform the public about the state of the polar ozone layer and the seasonal development of the Antarctic ozone hole throughout the project in particular in Southern South America. The public will be able to follow, in real time, the course of polar air masses which have been exposed to ozone loss on their way to mid-latitudes. The societies living in polar regions will be informed about actual UV levels. In general we intend to embed many of these activities in the initiative "Environmental Science Published for Everybody Round the Earth" (ESPERE) which is an international educational network driven by climate scientists and pedagogues (http://www.espere.net).
The behaviour of polar stratospheric ozone, and its consequences on the earth's environment and the polar ecosystems will be targeted in a major workshop within IPY. The main topics of the proposed workshop are listed as follows: 1. Status of research based on long term studies going back to the IGY: Satellite and ground based observations, modeling. UV changes and impact. Policy issues. 2. Current challenges: Ozone depletion at northern latitudes, climate-chemistry interactions/links, regional to hemispheric scale ozone pollution (air quality links). 3. Ozone recovery and links to climate change: Modeling and observational systems (satellite, ground based), detection of recovery, precursor scenarios. The future. 4. Impact on polar ecosystems and policy issues.
Results from the project will be published in open scientific journals and presented at international conferences.

3.10 What are the proposed sources of funding for this activity?
For some activities funding is already secured. However, for major parts of the projects proposals will be or have already been submitted to national agencies and the EU. In order to fund the overall management activities like dedicated workshops, travels, etc. an EU proposal for a COST action will be submitted.

3.11 Additional Comments
1.5: Further involved countries: Russia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, The Netherlands, UK, USA
2.3: Some of the ozonesonde and NDSC stations are also the place for other activities, i.e. Eureka, Jokioinen, Ny-Ålesund, Reykjavik, Sodankylä, Søndre Strømfjord, Thule, Belgrano, Davis, Dumont d'Urville, Marambio, McMurdo, Neumayer, South Pole, Syowa.
2.6: In general: some operators have been some have not been approached yet.
3.1: This question cannot be answered simple, since some sub-activies are new. There are also lots of existing programmes involved.

This project has been endorsed by the International Ozone Committee (IO3C), the World Meteorological Organisation/Global Atmosphere Watch (WMO/GAW), the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC) and the integrated EU funded project Stratosphere-Climate Links With Emphasis On The UTLS (SCOUT-O3).

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4.0 CONSORTIUM INFORMATION

4.1 Contact Details

Lead Contact
Dr Peter von der Gathen
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research
Research Department Potsdam Telegrafenberg A43 D-14473 Potsdam
D-14473
Germany

Tel:          +49-331-288-2128
Mobile:   N/A
Fax:         +49-331-288-2178
Email:       gathen@awi-potsdam.de

Second Contact
Dr Niels Larsen
Danish Meteorological Institute
Lyngbyvej 100 DK-2100 Copenhagen
DK-2100
Denmark

Tel:          +45-39-157500
Mobile:   N/A
Fax:         +45-39-157460
Email:      nl@dmi.dk

4.2 Other significant consortium members and their affiliation